BANGKOK—Burmese opposition figures and analysts hope that the upcoming visit by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Burma will boost reforms in the country, but caution that the Burmese government continues to violate human rights despite some positive recent signals
Speaking by telephone from Rangoon, National League for Democracy (NLD) spokesperson Ohn Kyaing said, “We welcome Secretary Clinton's visit as we hope she can address the government about releasing political prisoners, giving human rights to our people, and stopping the fighting in the ethnic regions.”
US President Barack Obama announced on Friday that Clinton will visit Burma on Dec.1-2, the highest ranking US official to visit the country since military rule was imposed in 1962.
The visit comes after what Obama described to as "flickers of progress" in Burma—a reference to the series of reforms and policy decisions taken since the military government stood aside in March. The current nominally civilian administration under President Thein Sein, a former army general, came to power after what were widely dismissed as rigged elections in November 2010, the country's first opportunity to vote since 1990.
Since then the Burmese government has allowed a slight easing of some of the world's most draconian media laws, freed over 200 political prisoners, suspended an unpopular and exploitative US $3.6bn Chinese dam project in Kachin state in the country's north, and enacted new labour laws.
Clinton will meet Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the NLD, who on Friday gave her backing to Burma's post-election political system by confirming that her party will contest by-elections scheduled to take place over the coming months. The Clinton visit was only confirmed after President Obama spoke with Suu Kyi by telephone while en route to Bali last week, a reminder of the 1991 Nobel Peace laureate's influence over some Western policymaker views on Burma.
The Clinton visit was announced after the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) agreed to allow Burma to chair the grouping in 2014, two years ahead of schedule. To some observers, the award was premature given that Burma is scheduled to hold elections in 2015. Those polls could have been used as another crucial yardstick of reform in the country, in turn allowing Asean to use the 2016 chair as an incentive to the Burmese government to hold fair elections.
Nonetheless, Secretary Clinton's visit has raised the possibility that some of the US economic sanctions on Burma could be relaxed in the near future, a request made again recently by the Burmese government. However, given that the US has long called for free and fair elections in Burma, the implication is that any substantive sanctions amendment is unlikely prior to 2015.
NLD spokesperson Ohn Kyaing said on Monday that “our leader [Suu Kyi] has said that sanctions depend on the Burmese government.”
Prior to the 2015 elections, Naypyidaw can undertake reforms in other crucial areas. Burma holds an estimated 1,700 political prisoners, while the country's army is fighting in Karen and Kachin states, ethnic-religious minority regions along the country's long-volatile borders with Thailand and China.
Speaking in Bali, however, Thein Sein said that he “doesn’t agree with” the assessment that Burma holds political prisoners, reverting to the long-standing military regime classification that Burma only jails criminals.
In remarks reported by Democratic Voice of Burma, he said that “we punished them because they violated the law … There are a lot of people in prison for breaking the law, so if we apply the term [prisoner of conscience] to just one group, then it will be unfair on the others.”
His comments raised eyebrows in Bali, and suggested that further political prisoner releases are not a foregone conclusion in Burma.
However, more releases should be a litmus test for assessing the veracity of the Burmese government's reformist intentions, say some. Looking forward to Clinton's visit, Bo Kyi, the founder of the Thailand-based Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP), and a former prisoner of conscience in Burma, said that Clinton should ask the Burmese government to release all political prisoners. Failing that, he suggested that an amnesty for at least 500 dissidents, including Min Ko Naing and Khun Tun Oo, should be announced before her visit.
The AAPP estimates that there are around 1,700 political prisoners still locked up in Burma, but given the difficulty in getting accurate information from inside the country, the true number is hard to gauge.
Clinton could request some clarification on these numbers while in Burma, he suggests, with the International Committee of the Red Cross or the UN Special Rapporteur on Burma's human rights, Tomas Ojea Quintana, ideally placed to undertake this task.
“In order to get true numbers of political prisoners, the Burmese regime should allow the ICRC or the Special Rapporteur to do independent investigations in all 42 prisons and labor camps in Burma,” he said.
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